ACTIVE INVESTIGATIONS

Hypotheses

in progress.

These are not case studies of past work. These are live experiments testing whether the principles explored on this property actually produce outcomes. Each experiment has a hypothesis, a method, and a refusal to report success before it is verified.

EXP-001ACTIVE

Can AI build authority?

Started 2026.03.15
Progress67%

If an AI system generates consistent, high-quality content across a narrow domain, can it establish genuine authority faster than a human team with inconsistent output?

Method

An AI system was trained on a specific body of domain knowledge and tasked with publishing daily content for 90 days. A comparable human team was asked to publish content in the same domain on a schedule they chose. Both were measured by backlink acquisition, reference frequency in industry discussions, and search ranking for domain-specific queries.

Findings

  • Authority appears to correlate more with consistency and specificity than with human authorship.
  • AI-generated content with rigorous fact-checking outperformed human content with occasional errors.
  • The 'authenticity' advantage of human writing disappeared when readers could not identify the source.
  • Domain specificity mattered more than writing style in every measurable outcome.

Conclusion

The experiment suggests that authority is a function of consistency and depth, not humanity. This challenges the common assumption that AI content cannot build authority. The counterargument — that long-term trust requires human relationship — has not yet been tested.

EXP-002ACTIVE

Can microsites outperform websites?

Started 2026.01.08
Progress82%

Do focused, single-purpose microsites with no navigation options outperform traditional multi-page websites for conversion?

Method

Five microsites were built, each with a single purpose and no navigation. Each was compared against the company's existing multi-page website for the same traffic source. Conversion was defined as a specific business action: purchase, appointment booking, or qualified lead submission.

Findings

  • Microsites showed 3.2x average conversion rate compared to full websites.
  • Eliminating navigation reduced bounce rate by 47%.
  • Visitors on microsites spent 40% less time but converted 3x more.
  • The highest-performing microsite had only 847 words total.

Conclusion

Choice paralysis is real, and most websites are designed to maximize choice rather than action. The microsite's success appears to come from clarity of purpose, not from any technical advantage. The unanswered question: can microsites scale, or are they only effective for narrow use cases?

EXP-003ACTIVE

Can one page outrank agencies?

Started 2026.02.20
Progress45%

Can a single, obsessively optimized page with genuine depth outrank entire agency websites with hundreds of thin pages?

Method

One page was created targeting a specific, competitive marketing-related query. The page contains 12,000 words of original analysis. It was compared against the top 20 ranking pages for the same query, all of which belong to established agencies with hundreds of indexed pages.

Findings

  • The single page reached position 14 after 60 days.
  • Average time on page is 8.3 minutes — significantly higher than ranking competitors.
  • The page has earned 23 natural backlinks without outreach.
  • Agency competitors average 340 indexed pages but show lower engagement per page.

Conclusion

Early signals suggest depth and specificity are winning over volume, but the experiment is not yet conclusive. If the page reaches the first page, it will challenge the content-volume strategy that most agencies pursue. If it does not, it will confirm that domain authority remains the dominant ranking factor regardless of page quality.

EXP-004ACTIVE

Can small businesses beat large brands?

Started 2025.11.03
Progress91%

Can local specificity and personal narrative outperform generic corporate messaging in local search and social proof?

Method

Ten small local businesses were given a framework for creating specific, owner-driven content. Their performance was compared against ten comparable businesses in the same categories that used generic corporate-style marketing.

Findings

  • Small businesses with owner-driven stories outperformed large brands in local search by significant margins.
  • Google Business Profile engagement was 4.2x higher for businesses with specific narrative content.
  • Review conversion rate (visitor to reviewer) was 2.8x higher for businesses that told specific stories.
  • The personal narrative effect was strongest in service businesses and weakest in product retail.

Conclusion

Local specificity and personal narrative appear to create trust that large brands cannot replicate with generic messaging. The experiment is approaching statistical significance and suggests that small businesses have an underexploited advantage in local marketing.

NEXT QUESTION

Why do websites fail before they launch?